Will we have a housing market crash soon?
Housing Market Crash
With the stock market forecast on a volatile but upward trend, one more Trillion dollar Federal aid package, high American wealth, $4 to $5 trillion in the money markets, and the confidence of a great nation still intact, is it even conceivable we could see a housing market crash?
Well, a good portion of Americans are hurting, more than usual and the persistence of the Covid 19 disease has some talking about a real estate market crash. The great repatriation of jobs back from China to the US is struggling.
China’s power over the US is frightening, at least 20 years now, and yet not everyone thinks its bad. Will the coming heated China US battle be enough to topple the US housing market? Wouldn’t a China US trade war actually be very good for the US economy and the US housing market?
Oil, Tourism, Hospitality, Small Business Decimated
Some cities such as Dallas, Denver, Houston, Tulsa, Fargo, and a few others are likely in big trouble with oil, tourism, and a recession on hand. The Bay Area will be an interesting spot, with likely big price drops (that happened).
There won’t be a housing crash this year, but this prolonged recession will keep house prices from rocketing out of control. Sellers won’t be getting rich, but some may have to sell their home. The 3 month housing market looks very active for Realtors, but likely slowing in the fall. If another Covid 19 infection wave hits in the fall, it could be devastating.
Just as the shutdown ends, the US has tens of millions of unemployed workers, some of whom won’t be returning to former jobs, for a variety of reasons. Their home search has ended officially.
Demand Will Resume, But Home Prices Will Flatten
What characterizes US housing markets is a severe lack of supply. With new construction starts reported down (-15.4% in March — Kiplinger report; and will be down 60% at least in April), it is difficult to find homes to buy. Home prices keep rising, and now with paychecks resuming, and more motivated buyers, the market will likely not crash.
There is too much demand, and most home buyers still have a good amount of money to buy.
To crash a housing market takes a lot since the government can spend to revitalize it. President Trump and the Fed have said they will do anything to support the US economy. The coming tariff and cold war with China will create some market ripples, but overall, the return of business to the US will be good for the housing market.
Zero interest rates, $2.2 trillion stimulus, a pro-business President may lose the election because of his personality, rock bottom oil prices, and a travel industry decimated for at least this year are unusual factors. There is concern as these Google searches indicate.